Industry Update! Screenwriting in the Time of Contraction

One of the things that I love about my job is that I am, in essence, a professional industry observer, getting to watch industry trends, changes and fluctuations exclusively through the screenwriting sense. Over the years, I’ve been fortunate enough to gain perspective into the twists and turns of screenwriting in the industry in real time through the eyes of the repped and working screenwriters I am lucky enough to work with through my one-on-one coaching practice, as well as my friends in the industry including execs and literary managers working with writers in our dynamic (and sometimes frustrating) industry. 

I’ve written industry updates through the pandemic and strike, to name a few, hoping to keep my readers up to date on the shifts and changes in the industry as I’m a big believer that understanding the industry is key to finding professional success in it. So last week, when my friend, literary manager Zack Zucker of Bellevue Productions, stopped by Screenwriters Support Group to share his perspective on screenwriting in the current industry climate, I realized that it was time to dive into my next update. During our talk, Zack and I discussed how the current contraction that we all hear so much about is affecting screenwriters both working and emerging. The blog post below and its Part 2 that will be coming your way next week are the result of it. 

Just a note that this blogpost is written (and published!) in August 2024. Because the industry ebbs, flows and changes all the time, it’s important to keep that in mind. 

ALSO: There are exceptions to every rule, and nothing written here is absolute. We hear all the time that the one genre that you will never be able to find a buyer for in features is Western. Well… Case in point: For years I worked with a writer who sold a Western pitch to a studio for a significant chumps of change. Granted, the word “western” was kept out of the pitch, but a western nonetheless. Which is to say: In this industry, nothing is impossible. And a lot of early career successes were born of writers not refraining from doing things that they were told would be impossible to find success with. 

To get us started…

Let’s set the stage. Where are we now and how did we get here? 
In May 2023, the WGA struck against the Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers. The strike lasted almost 6 months (starting on 5/2/23 and ending on 9/27/23). Even though TV was already contracting, there was a strong belief that as soon as the strike would be over a ton of TV writer’s rooms would open and production would be back in full force but… that never happened in the volume expected, bringing the period of what was termed peak TV to a screeching halt. For those keeping track, peak TV is now defined as running from 2013 to 2023. While TV production did pick back up, it was not in the volume seen pre-strike. Even now, almost a full year after the strike ended, we are finding that not all previously-staffed writers have staffed again in writers rooms which is to say… it’s not been easy. Writing in the time of contraction has definitely provided its challenges. That said… keep on reading! There’s good news ahead, and while we want to be realistic there is also no need to dwell on the negative. 

(for those of you who are data geeks like me and want to learn more about the current TV contraction, check out this fantastic, informative talk from 2024’s SXSW: The Death of Peak TV and What it Means for Hollywood).

TV contraction and all, there’s also been some notable good news, specifically on the feature side. Personally, I’ve been told that “movies are dead” so many times over the decades I’ve worked in the industry that I take personal pleasure in movies proving us wrong time and time again. Yes, our 2024 summer box office is not quite holding up to the box office in years past, but successes like Inside Out 2 which is now the top grossing movie for the year and Longlegs, an independent film distributed by an independent distributor (Neon) that took the top spot in the box office in its opening summer weekend gives me plenty of reasons to feel optimistic. 

With that in mind, let’s break down updates on the various fronts: 

Representation
A lot has changed on the representation front in the past year or so. If you’ve been reading the trades, you know that there have been agency closures (A3) and agency layoffs (UTA, CAA, Paradigm just to name a few), cutting the landscape of literary agents down significantly. Which is okay because… if you’ve not yet broken in, an agent was not really going to be your champion to start with (for more, check out my blogpost Stop Looking for a Screenwriting Agent). Now more than ever, we are seeing agents coming onto the writer’s team only once the incoming call business starts to take shape. Which means that in early career stages it’s going to be about working with a literary manager all the way.

Because of the challenges in the agenting space, a significant number of agents have made the move to the management space, where they can not only vacillate between the film and TV spaces (traditionally agents cover EITHER TV Lit OR Feature Lit) but can also engage in producing as well as management to make up for potential earnings lost following the WGA’s move against the ATA in their 2019/2020 Franchise Agreement renegotiation. 

While managers are focusing on getting their previously-working writers back to working through Open Writing Assignments or TV staffing opportunities and their developmental writers’ work out into the professional space, I do hear from Zack and others in the space that select emerging writers are still getting signed. The one caveat here is that I’m being told that prospective managers are now almost exclusively seeking actionable screenplays that they can take on and take out with minimal rewrites, rather than more developmental clients with whom they are seeking to develop new work. But over the past past year a number of my previously-unrepped writers have gotten signed and I’m excited to see their feature scripts go to market! 

For more about those actionable screenplays in the feature space, keep reading our next sections of updates. 

Screenwriting/Feature Space
As mentioned above, the feature writing space is the one that currently has some positive movement and  excitement behind it. After all, while TV is limited in buyers and outlets, the number of producers out there and ways to put together a movie from producing to financing feels in some way infinite, creating more opportunities in the space. 

However, not all screenplays are created equal, and we are finding that certain genres are more viable, while others are less so for today’s market. Specifically, we are hearing that well-executed screenplays in the horror, erotic thriller, broad comedy and romantic comedy spaces are of interest to producers and buyers alike, and that ideas that are either very commercial or uniquely left-of-center providing unconventional, wild takes on familiar tropes, topics or subject matters are of interest for reps and producers. 

Both reps and producers are continuing to seek out unique, diverse writers who bring authentic experiences and stand-out voices to their writing. Screenplays that are powered by exciting lived experiences be they literal or thematic seem to be getting attention. Those writers that I have seen gain traction with both reps and producers during the past 12 months are those whose voice is specific, and whose take on a particular genre or character is powerful and distinctive.

Industry Update: Screenwriting/TV Space
Unfortunately, the TV space is the one in which bad news does come in. Things on the TV side, specifically for emerging writers and previously-staffed lower-level writers (Staff Writers, Story Editors and Executive Story Editors) are… not great. Which is a bit of an understatement. As I write this, I have to admit that I’m doing the blogging equivalent of humming and hawing because, well, don’t kill the messenger. 

TV numbers are, for the time being, down. We are making significantly less shows than we did in those peak TV years, most specifically as those came to a close in 2023. And not only are we making less shows, our writers rooms are also smaller as networks, whose longer-run shows required bigger writers’ rooms, are producing less content. Which means that breaking into TV writing for the first time specifically on the staffing side represents a significant challenge in this particular moment in time. The networks’ TV Writing Programs, which provide a direct path to staffing are now more valuable than ever, and many writers who are able to staff in writers’ rooms for the first time are doing so through personal relationships with high level writers, rising through the writers’ room support staff, or based on success already achieved.

When it comes to buying pilots and pitches for pilots, we are finding that the industry is almost exclusively purchasing new content to develop from previously staffed writers, or screenwriters who have enjoyed significant success on the screenwriting front. This is bound to evolve, but that is just where we are for the moment. Which is to say, don’t put the pilot you’ve worked hard on away to collect dust on the shelf, but consider getting initial interest through an undeniable feature screenplay, which will than open the door on the TV front as well.  

If you watched that Variety Insight video I mentioned above, than you know that there is hope: As buyers lean more procedural in their purchases, we are hoping to see series with a higher episode-per-season count become more prevalent. Why does this matter? A heftier season means a larger writers’ room, as the new contract that the WGA negotiated to end the 2023 strike mandates that a higher episode count demands a larger writers room. 

I hope you find this update helpful! For more on this and how to continue pushing your screenwriting forward during these challenging time, keep an eye out for next week’s blog post: Industry Update: Keeping Calm and Pushing Forward During the Industry Contraction.